Tim Lincecum
 |
| Tim Lincecum |
What's Tim Lincecum Really worth In Arbitration?
Yesterday was the actual deadline for arbitration-eligible gamers and their teams to switch dueling salary figures prior to arbitration hearings within February. The Bay area Giants set an archive in their $17 zillion offer to Ricky Lincecum, the highest this kind of amount ever offered a person with fewer compared to six years associated with service time. Lincecum countered together with his own record-setting determine of $21. 5 zillion.
Those numbers tend to be close enough in order to lay the groundwork for any deal between Lincecum and also the Giants, somewhere within the $19-$20 million variety. That’s right where our very own Matt Swartz pegged Lincecum’s 2012 income ($19. two million) within his arbitration forecasts published at MLB Industry Rumors.
If both sides don’t achieve agreement before a good arbitration hearing, that has the better situation?
Baseball arbitrators are to create their decision in line with the player’s performance, their prior salary, and also the salaries of additional players in their service-time class. The actual arbitration rules, nevertheless, do contain the “special accomplishments” provision that allows players to evaluate themselves to additional players who’ve accomplished similar accomplishments in the same time frame frame.
To the actual numbers.
The Greatest Case For Lincecum
Lincecum will concentrate on the entirety associated with his five-year profession. As Giants defeat writer Henry Schulman mentioned, Lincecum is among only two pitchers within MLB history to pitch a lot more than 1, 000 innings, convey more than 1, 000 strikeouts and record a period lower than 3. 00 during the period of first five months. The other glass pitcher was Tom Seaver. As well as Seaver didn’t earn two Cy Youthful awards in their first five months like Lincecum do, in 2008 as well as 2009.
Lincecum also stands out in comparison with other starters with increased than 800 innings frequency from 2007-2011. More than that five-year time period, Lincecum leads the actual majors with 1, 123 strikeouts, the K/9 of 9. 87, along with a HR/9 of. fifty eight. He’s also linked for second within ERA with Johan Santana (two. 98), at the rear of only Roy Halladay (two. 81).
Along with those numbers as well as his two Cy Youthful awards, Lincecum will argue — in line with the “special accomplishments” supply — that his salary ought to be comparable to additional recent Cy Young winners who've maintained elite production during the last five years: Roy Halladay, CLOSED CIRCUIT Sabathia and High cliff Lee. Indeed, Lincecum’s $21. 5 million settlement demand is add up to Lee’s salary with regard to 2012. Halladay can make $20 million within 2012. Sabathia may earn $23 zillion. The median of these two figures? $21. 5 zillion.
The Best Case for that Giants
The Titans will, of program, acknowledge Lincecum’s unheralded accomplishments for any five-year player, but will focus particularly on the final two seasons. This year and 2011, Lincecum slipped in the top rankings in many statistical categories, slipping behind Halladay as well as Lee in PERIOD, behind Clayton Kershaw as a whole strikeouts and K/9, and behind a number of other pitchers within HR/9.
In truth, several other starters close operating time to Lincecum possess outperformed him during the last two seasons in most key statistical categories besides strikeouts and K/9. Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez as well as Matt Cain — all whom began their own major league professions in 2006, twelve months before Lincecum’s debut — experienced lower ERAs, reduce WHIP, and higher K/BB than Lincecum within the prior two months.
Of those pitchers, Verlander would be the highest paid within 2012, earning $20 million underneath the five-year contact he signed using the Tigers before the actual 2010 season. Following is Hernandez from $18. 5, under his five-year cope with the Mariners. Cain and Hamels may each make $15 zillion in 2012 — Cain within the last year of their three-year contract using the Giants, and Hamels by way of the one-year deal he decided to yesterday with the actual Phillies. The Angels can pay Weaver $14 million within the first year associated with his new five-year deal by which he admitted to giving a house town discount.
Where Does it Come Out?
2 yrs ago, in their first foray to the arbitration process, the actual Giants offered $8 zillion and Lincecum — arriving off two consecutive Cy Youthful awards — countered along with $13 million. Because they waited for the actual arbitrators to key in the hearing space, the two attributes struck a deal for 2 years and $23 zillion — $8 million along with a $1 million bonus this year and $13 million along with a $1 million reward for 2011.
The Giants’ $17 million offer will be a 30 percent improve for Lincecum more than his 2011 income. A jump in order to $21. 5 million will be a 65 percent improve.
The arbitrators must select a number. There’s absolutely no compromise. If this gets that much, my bet is about the Giants’ $17 zillion offer. It’s more consistent with Lincecum’s service-time peers who've outperformed him during the last two seasons. Indeed, he won the actual Cy Young within 2008 and '09, but he hasn't kept pace along with Halladay, Lee as well as Sabathia, and shouldn’t end up being compensated at their own level.
At minimum not in 2012.
No comments:
Post a Comment